💰 Investment Tips Table of Contents
Corrected and recalculated October 28, 2026. The original version of this article valued Perfect Order (ME3) using Mega Mewtwo, Mega Lucario and Mega Charizard X SIRs. None of those cards are in Perfect Order, so its “break-even” conclusion was wrong. It also listed Phantasmal Flames as a December 2025 release (it came out November 14, 2025) and named the wrong top cards for ME1 and ME2. Every number below has been redone from dated prices, with the formula shown.
The question every collector cracking a sealed box should ask is the unsentimental one: how much of the box price comes back in the chase cards? Here is that math for each Mega Evolution Block set, done in a way you can repeat yourself.
How We Calculate It
Chase value per box = (36 packs ÷ pull rate) × average price of that rarity, for Special Illustration Rares (SIR) and Mega Hyper Rares (MHR).
- Prices: TCGplayer market price, USD, near mint, the highest printing of each card, checked October 25, 2026. Each set’s average is a simple average of every SIR (or MHR) in the set. You can see every card and price on its set page in The Vault.
- Pull rates: community-reported estimates, not official odds. Pokemon does not publish pull rates, and small opening samples swing a lot. We use 1 in 101 (ME1), 1 in 95 (ME2), 1 in 100 (ME3) and 1 in 144 (ME4) packs for SIRs, and roughly 1 in 1,260 (ME1, ME2) or 1 in 1,200 (ME3, ME4) packs for MHRs.
- What’s left out: regular ex cards, Illustration Rares and the rest of the box. They add some value, but we don’t have reliable enough pull rates to put a number on them, so the totals below are the chase slots only.
- Not included: selling fees, shipping and the time it takes to sell. Real returns are lower than these figures.
ME1: Mega Evolution (September 26, 2025)
- Top cards: Mega Lucario ex Mega Hyper Rare #188 ($225.54), Mega Gardevoir ex SIR #178 ($171.05), Mega Lucario ex SIR #179 ($168.24)
- SIR: 36 ÷ 101 × $76.02 average (10 SIRs) = $27.10 per box
- MHR: 36 ÷ 1,260 × $196.49 average (2 MHRs) = $5.61 per box
- Chase value per box: $32.71
ME2: Phantasmal Flames (November 14, 2025)
- Top cards: Mega Charizard X ex SIR #125 ($619.14), Mega Charizard X ex Mega Hyper Rare #130 ($205.11). Mega Charizard X ex is the set’s headline chase.
- SIR: 36 ÷ 95 × $135.45 average (5 SIRs) = $51.33 per box
- MHR: 36 ÷ 1,260 × $205.11 = $5.86 per box
- Chase value per box: $57.19, the highest in the block, almost entirely because of one card. Remove Mega Charizard X ex and the other four SIRs average under $17.
ME3: Perfect Order (March 27, 2026)
- Top cards: Mega Zygarde ex Mega Hyper Rare #124 ($88.20), Meowth ex SIR #121 ($85.00), Mega Zygarde ex SIR #120 ($40.02). The six SIRs are Mega Starmie ex, Mega Clefable ex, Mega Zygarde ex, Meowth ex, Jacinthe and Rosa’s Encouragement.
- SIR: 36 ÷ 100 × $41.67 average (6 SIRs) = $15.00 per box
- MHR: 36 ÷ 1,200 × $88.20 = $2.65 per box
- Chase value per box: $17.65. Perfect Order is not a break-even set. Its chase cards are the least valuable in the block after Chaos Rising.
ME4: Chaos Rising (May 22, 2026)
- Top cards: Mega Greninja ex Mega Hyper Rare #122 ($115.48), Mega Greninja ex SIR #116 ($111.93), Cinccino ex SIR #119 ($38.89)
- SIR: 36 ÷ 144 × $39.04 average (6 SIRs) = $9.76 per box
- MHR: 36 ÷ 1,200 × $115.48 = $3.46 per box
- Chase value per box: $13.22. Mega Greninja ex has fallen a long way from launch-week prices, and the rarer SIR rate pulls the math down further.
What the Math Says Overall
| Set | SIR rate (est.) | Avg SIR price | Chase value per box |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME1 (Mega Evolution) | 1 in 101 | $76.02 | $32.71 |
| ME2 (Phantasmal Flames) | 1 in 95 | $135.45 | $57.19 |
| ME3 (Perfect Order) | 1 in 100 | $41.67 | $17.65 |
| ME4 (Chaos Rising) | 1 in 144 | $39.04 | $13.22 |
Prices checked October 25, 2026. Pull rates are community estimates. Chase slots only.
At around $130 a box, no Mega Evolution Block set comes close to paying for itself through its chase cards. Even with the rest of the box counted, the gap is large. Phantasmal Flames comes closest, and that is down to one card.
What This Means If You Are Buying
If you want a specific chase card, buy the single. With these numbers, the expected cost of pulling one SIR from Chaos Rising is about four boxes, and you’d still only have a 1 in 6 chance it’s the Mega Greninja.
If you enjoy opening, open for fun, not profit. Budget for the box as entertainment, and treat any big hit as a bonus.
Prices move. These figures will change as the market does. Check the current prices on each set’s page in The Vault before you decide.
For more on the block, see our Perfect Order set preview and Chaos Rising top 10 chase cards.
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